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An Analysis of Bitcoin’s Price Dynamics

机译:比特币价格动态分析

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This paper aims to enhance the understanding of which factors affect the price development of Bitcoin in order for investors to make sound investment decisions. Previous literature has covered only a small extent of the highly volatile period during the last months of 2017 and the beginning of 2018. To examine the potential price drivers, we use the Autoregressive Distributed Lag and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity approach. Our study identifies the technological factor Hashrate as irrelevant for modeling Bitcoin price dynamics. This irrelevance is due to the underlying code that makes the supply of Bitcoins deterministic, and it stands in contrast to previous literature that has included Hashrate as a crucial independent variable. Moreover, the empirical findings indicate that the price of Bitcoin is affected by returns on the S&P 500 and Google searches, showing consistency with results from previous literature. In contrast to previous literature, we find the CBOE volatility index (VIX), oil, gold, and Bitcoin transaction volume to be insignificant.
机译:本文旨在增进对影响比特币价格发展的因素的理解,以便投资者做出合理的投资决策。先前的文献仅涵盖了2017年最后几个月和2018年初的高度波动时期的一小部分。为了研究潜在的价格驱动因素,我们使用了自回归分布滞后和广义自回归条件异方差方法。我们的研究确定技术因素Hashrate与建模比特币价格动态无关。这种不相关性是由于底层代码使确定比特币的供应具有确定性,与之前的文献中将Hashrate作为关键的自变量包括在内形成了鲜明对比。此外,经验发现表明,比特币的价格受标普500指数和Google搜索的收益影响,与先前文献的结果一致。与以前的文献相比,我们发现CBOE波动率指数(VIX),石油,黄金和比特币交易量微不足道。

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