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Multiperiod Hedging using Futures: Mean Reversion and the Optimal Hedging Path

机译:使用期货进行多期对冲:均值回归和最优对冲路径

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Abstract This paper considers the multiperiod hedging decision in a framework of mean-reverting spot prices and unbiased futures markets. The task is to determine the optimal hedging path, i.e., the sequence of positions in futures contracts with the objective of minimizing the variance of an uncertain future cash flow. The model is used to illustrate both hedging using a matchedmaturity futures contract and hedging by rolling over a series of nearby futures contracts. In each case, the paper derives the conditions under which a single period (myopic) strategy would be optimal as opposed to a dynamic multiperiod strategy. The results suggest that greater the market power of the hedging entity, closer the optimal strategy is to a myopic hedge. The paper also highlights the difference in the optimal hedging path when hedging is based on matched-maturity as opposed to nearby contracts.
机译:摘要本文在均值回归的现货价格和无偏向的期货市场的框架下考虑了多期对冲决策。任务是确定最佳对冲路径,即期货合约中的头寸顺序,以使不确定的未来现金流量的方差最小。该模型用于说明使用匹配到期的期货合约进行套期保值和通过滚动一系列附近的期货合约进行套期保值。在每种情况下,本文都得出了单周期(近视)策略与动态多周期策略相对应的最佳条件。结果表明,对冲实体的市场力量越大,最优策略越接近于近距离对冲。本文还强调了基于对等期限而不是附近合约的对冲时,最佳对冲路径的差异。

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