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A Mean-Variance Diagnosis of the Financial Crisis: International Diversification and Safe Havens

机译:金融危机的均值方差诊断:国际多元化和安全港

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Abstract We use mean-variance analysis with short selling constraints to diagnose the effects of the recent global financial crisis by evaluating the potential benefits of international diversification in the search for ‘safe havens’. We use stock index data for a sample of developed, advanced-emerging and emerging countries. ‘Text-book’ results are obtained for the pre-crisis analysis with the optimal portfolio for any risk-averse investor being obtained as the tangency portfolio of the All-Country portfolio frontier. During the crisis there is a disjunction between bank lending and stock markets revealed by negative average returns and an absence of any empirical Capital Market Line. Israel and Colombia emerge as the safest havens for any investor during the crisis. For Israel this may reflect the protection afforded by special trade links and diaspora support, while for Colombia we speculate that this reveals the impact on world financial markets of the demand for cocaine.
机译:摘要我们使用带有卖空限制的均值方差分析,通过评估国际多样化在寻找“避风港”中的潜在利益,来诊断最近的全球金融危机的影响。我们使用股票指数数据作为发达,新兴和新兴国家的样本。获得“教科书”结果以进行危机前分析,并获得针对所有规避风险的投资者的最佳投资组合,作为全国投资组合边界的相切组合。在危机期间,由于平均回报为负且没有任何经验性的资本市场线,银行贷款与股票市场之间存在脱节。在危机期间,以色列和哥伦比亚成为任何投资者最安全的避风港。对于以色列来说,这可能反映了特殊贸易联系和海外侨民支持所提供的保护,而对于哥伦比亚,我们推测这揭示了可卡因需求对世界金融市场的影响。

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