A dynamic tracking model for the reservoir water flooding of a separated layer water injection was established. Based on the basic principles of heat and mass transfer, the water profile was determined using a well temperature curve. The Poisson process analysis and stochastic process methods were applied to calculate the water saturation, water breakthrough time, and water cut of each layer in a water-flooded reservoir at any given time. When the oil reservoir was producing water, the water cut predicted by the models, with consideration of the micro-pore distribution, approximated the practical measurement, having an error of less than 5?%. The sample application clearly indicated that larger water injection intensity (water intake per unit thickness) could result in more drastic water saturation variation, earlier water breakthrough, and faster increase in the water cut for layers with numerous high-permeability channels, such as fractures.
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