Uncertainty Analysis for Evaluating CH4 Emission from Solid Waste Landfill of Hefei City Based on Monte Carlo Method

摘要

It is an important content to analyze the uncertainty of emission from greenhouse gases in compiling the emission inventory. Reliable uncertainty estimates can also be used to increase the quality of emission inventories. This paper took the emission of CH4 from the solid waste landfill in Hefei City in 2014 as an example, and employed the mass balance method to compute its emission. Monte Carlo method was used to carry out the sensitivity analysis and compute uncertainty. Through computing, 95% confidence interval of CH4 emission from landfill in Hefei City was (1.89~3.40) × 104 t. The mean value was 2.61 × 104 t with uncertainty range of –27.59%~30.27%. Among all the parameters, the decomposable proportion of DOC (DOCf ) showed the greatest impact on the emission of CH4 from the landfill and its contribution to emission result was 26.33%. Followed by the degradable organic carbon (DOC) was 26.29%, the amount of solid waste (MSW) was 13.63%, methane correction factor (MCF) was 6.93% and the proportion of methane in landfill gas (F) was 6.58%. The results showed that compared with traditional error propagation method, it improved the accuracy and quality of assessment and provided a scientific basis to improve the quality of inventory as well.