Safety Assessment for Reduced Time-Based Separation Minima on Oceanic Routes

摘要

Currently, the minimum allowed longitudinal time separation between two aircraft on oceanic routes is set to 15 minutes. However, to deal with heavy traffic, a decrease to 10 minutes has been under consideration. So far, a major disadvantage of the conventional loss distribution method applied to calculate the risk of collision has been that it cannot guarantee safety in the case of reduced separation minima. In this paper, the loss distribution method is refined to avoid over-estimation by considering the relative speed of two aircraft and appropriate data sampling.