Streamflow response to potential land use and climate changes in the James River watershed, Upper Midwest United States

摘要

Highlights ? Projected land use and climate changes are analyzed under various scenarios. ? Effects of land use and climate changes on annual streamflow are simulated. ? Future land use and climate will likely increase streamflow by end of the century. Abstract Study region North and South Dakotas, United States Study focus Changes in watershed hydrology are mainly driven by changes in land use and climate. This study evaluated the impacts of climate and land use changes on streamflow in an agricultural watershed in the Upper Midwest. Three projected climate change scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) of three general circulation models (CGCM3.1, GFDL-CM2.1, and HADCM3) were developed for mid (2046–2065) and end (2080–2099) of the 21st century. Corresponding land use maps for years 2055 and 2090 were obtained from the FOREcasting SCEnarios of Land-Cover (FORE-SCE) model. The scenarios were designed in a way that land use was changed while climate conditions remain constant, land use was then held constant under a changing climate, and finally both land use and climate were changed simultaneously to reflect possible future land use and climate conditions. New hydrological insights for the region Potential land use and climate changes would result in 12–18% % and 17–41% increases in annual streamflow, respectively, by end of the century. The combined effects of land use and climate changes would intensify future streamflow responses with 13–60% increases in the region. This study provides a broad perspective on plausible hydrologic alterations in the region, prompting individual and collective opportunities to engage with this topic for sustainable planning and management of watersheds.