USACE Experience in Implementing Risk Analysis for Flood Damage Reduction Projects

摘要

For about a decade now, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has performed its flood damage reduction project development and improvements studies in an expanded risk analysis (RA) framework. This practice is a substantial change from policies and practices of the past, and was achieved despite significant impediments, both internal and external to the USACE. Sustaining the RA policy requires continued improvements in concepts and methods, as well as acceptance by the USACE professional Communities of Practice and the customers and stakeholders served by USACE. Hurricane Katrina and the devastation of New Orleans due to the failure of the protection system have brought increased attention by the nation to notions of risk and uncertainty in project performance. In this context, a broader embracing of RA in managing the nation's critical infrastructure may help sustain the implementation of these procedures within the USACE and the profession.This paper provides a summary of the impetus for USACE adopting RA for flood-risk-reduction project evaluation and its consequent maturing and applications over the past decade. Several papers have been published that summarize concepts and applications (e.g. Dotson 1994, Burnham 1995, Davis 2003). The present state of the RA effort within the USACE is described and illustrated here with two key applications. External challenges and concerns about the USACE adoption of RA were significant and culminated in two formal reviews by the National Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences (National Research Council 1995, 2000); the National Research Council findings are summarized here. This paper outlines deficiencies and weaknesses in present policy and methods, summarizes research needs, and presents our perception of the way forward.