Shareholder Valuations of Petroleum Companies and Oilfield Services During the 2008 and 2014 Oil Price Shocks

摘要

This study analyzes the impact of the 2008 and 2014 oil price falls on the shareholder returns of diversified oil and gas majors, Canadian oil sands producers, US shale oil and gas producers and oilfield service companies. The 2008 an 2014 oil price shocks lead to capital book losses for investor TSR at year end. In both years, the TSR losses were disproportionately large as compared to the actual slow down (which was very modest) in retained earnings growth. Our recommendation is that investors should not only use P/E ratios to identify value growth stock investment opportunities. An alternative methodology quantifies the degree of speculative valuation involved in the TSR component of capital gains (losses). When negative speculative valuations are large, future TSR growth is most likely. Companies that want to mitigate unwarranted erosion of their market capitalization due to stock price declines should ramp up advertorial efforts and point out value growth opportunities to attract investors, especially in times of depressed stock prices.