The sensitivity to the microphysical schemes on the skill of forecasting the track and intensity of tropical cyclones using WRF-ARW model

摘要

The Advanced Research WRF (ARW) model is used to simulate Very Severe Cyclonic Storms (VSCS) Hudhud (7a€“13 October, 2014), Phailin (8a€“14 October, 2013) and Lehar (24a€“29 November, 2013) to investigate the sensitivity to microphysical schemes on the skill of forecasting track and intensity of the tropical cyclones for high-resolution (9 and 3 km) 120-hr model integration. For cloud resolving grid scale (5 km) cloud microphysics plays an important role. The performance of the Goddard, Thompson, LIN and NSSL schemes are evaluated and compared with observations and a CONTROL forecast. This study is aimed to investigate the sensitivity to microphysics on the track and intensity with explicitly resolved convection scheme. It shows that the Goddard one-moment bulk liquid-ice microphysical scheme provided the highest skill on the track whereas for intensity both Thompson and Goddard microphysical schemes perform better. The Thompson scheme indicates the highest skill in intensity at 48, 96 and 120 hr, whereas at 24 and 72 hr, the Goddard scheme provides the highest skill in intensity. It is known that higher resolution domain produces better intensity and structure of the cyclones and it is desirable to resolve the convection with sufficiently high resolution and with the use of explicit cloud physics. This study suggests that the Goddard cumulus ensemble microphysical scheme is suitable for high resolution ARW simulation for TCa€?s track and intensity over the BoB. Although the present study is based on only three cyclones, it could be useful for planning real-time predictions using ARW modelling system.