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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Electrical and Electronic Engineering >Short-term Electrical Energy Consumption Forecasting Using GMDH-type Neural Network
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Short-term Electrical Energy Consumption Forecasting Using GMDH-type Neural Network

机译:基于GMDH型神经网络的短期能耗预测。

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摘要

Electric load forecasting plays an important role in the planning and operation of the power system for high productivity in any institution of learning. A short-term electrical energy forecast for Gidan Kwano campus, Federal University of Technology Minna, Nigeria was carried out using GMDH-type neural network and the result was compared to that of regression analysis. GMDH-type neural network was used to train and test weekly energy consumed in the campus from September 2010 to December 2014. The neural network was trained using quadratic neural function. Root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used as performance indices to test the accuracy of the forecast. The neural network model gave a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.1189, a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 0.0922 and a correlation (R) value of 0.8995 while the regression analysis method gave a standard error of 10968.1 and a correlation (R) value of 0.1137. Results obtained show the efficacy of the GMDH-type neural network model in forecasting over the regression analysis method.
机译:在任何学习机构中,电力负荷预测在电力系统的规划和运行中都将发挥重要作用,以提高生产率。使用GMDH型神经网络对尼日利亚明纳联邦技术大学Gidan Kwano校园进行了短期电能预测,并将结果与​​回归分析进行了比较。 GMDH型神经网络用于训练和测试从2010年9月至2014年12月在校园内每周消耗的能量。该神经网络使用二次神经函数进行训练。均方根误差(RMSE)和平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)被用作性能指标,以测试预测的准确性。神经网络模型的均方根误差(RMSE)为0.1189,平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)为0.0922,相关性(R)值为0.8995,而回归分析方法给出的标准误差为10968.1,相关性为( R)值为0.1137。获得的结果表明,GMDH型神经网络模型在回归分析方法的预测中具有功效。

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