...
首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Electrical Engineering >Wind speed prediction research with EMD-BP based on Lorenz disturbance
【24h】

Wind speed prediction research with EMD-BP based on Lorenz disturbance

机译:基于洛仑兹扰动的EMD-BP风速预测研究

获取原文
           

摘要

Wind power, as a new energy generation technology, has been applying widely and growing rapidly, which make it become the main force of renewable energy. However, wind speed sequence has its own character of the intermittent and uncertainty, which brings a great challenge to the safety and stability of the power grid, one of the valid ways solving the problem is improving the wind speed predicting accuracy. Therefore, given atmospheric disturbances, we firstly used empirical mode decomposition (EMD) to deal with the non-linear wind speed sequence, and combined with strong adaptive and self-learning ability of BP neural network, then, a wind speed prediction model, EMD-BP neural network based on Lorenz disturbance, was proposed. Finally, it was to made use of actual wind speed data to take a simulation experiment and explored the improvement effect of the preliminary forecasting sequence of wind speed influenced by Lorenz equation in the transient chaos and chaos. The results show that, the improved model weakened the random fluctuation of wind speed sequence, effectively corrected the wind speed sequences initial prediction values, and made a great improvement for the short-term wind speed prediction precision. This research work will help the power system dispatching department adjust the dispatching plan in time, formulate the wind farm control strategy reasonably, reduce the impact brought by wind power grid connection, increase the wind power penetration rate, and then promote the global energy power market innovation.
机译:风力发电作为一种新的发电技术,已经得到了广泛的应用,并且发展迅速,这使其成为可再生能源的主力军。然而,风速序列具有间歇性和不确定性的特点,这对电网的安全性和稳定性提出了极大的挑战,解决该问题的有效方法之一就是提高风速的预测精度。因此,在给定大气干扰的情况下,首先采用经验模态分解(EMD)处理非线性风速序列,并结合BP神经网络的强大自适应和自学习能力,再建立风速预测模型EMD提出了基于洛伦兹扰动的-BP神经网络。最后,利用实际风速数据进行了模拟实验,并探讨了Lorenz方程影响的风速初步预报序列在瞬态混沌和混沌中的改进效果。结果表明,改进后的模型减弱了风速序列的随机波动,有效地修正了风速序列的初始预测值,极大地提高了风速的短期预测精度。这项研究工作将有助于电力系统调度部门及时调整调度计划,合理制定风电场控制策略,减少风电并网带来的影响,提高风电普及率,进而推动全球能源市场革新。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱:kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备:11010802029741号 ICP备案号:京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有
  • 客服微信

  • 服务号