Research on risk of remanufacturing telescopic job structure system under potential multi-failure mode correlation

摘要

To overcome the problem that the risk of remanufacturing telescopic boom structure system is difficult to be determined under potential multi-failure mode correlation caused by multiple coupled defects, the probability grid estimation method of second-order moment improved by firefly algorithm (PGE-ISM-FA) and the fireflies neural network structure system risk prediction method (FANN-SSRP) are proposed. The risk analysis model and prediction model of jib system with multiple coupled defects are established. Furthermore, the risk prediction system of remanufacturing telescopic boom structure is developed. With original and defect features parameters of measuring points being as the basis, random variables of performance functions are determined. Then, performance functions corresponding to failure modes are derived in accordance with the failure criterion. PGE-ISM-FA is applied to obtain the most probable failure point in the failure domain of measuring points, so as to getting representative failure model of measuring points. Thus, the risk degree of measuring points can be calculated. According to the weakest link method, the risk degree of jib structure system and the most dangerous testing point are confirmed. Based on this and combined with FANN-SSRP, the mapping relation of characteristic parameters and risk degree is built. In addition, the risk prediction system of remanufacturing telescopic boom structure is compiled, thus realized the rapid and real-time risk prediction of telescopic jib structure system in service. Finally, the effectiveness and adaptability of above methods and prediction system are verified by the example of telescopic jib structure system of QY130t mobile crane.