Testing the neoclassical migration model: overall and age-group specific results for German regions

摘要

This paper tests the empirical validity of the neoclassical migration model in predicting German internal migration flows. We estimate static and dynamic migration functions for??97 Spatial Planning Regions between 1996 and 2006 using key labor market signals including income and unemployment differences among a?broader set of explanatory variables. In addition to an aggregate specification we also estimate the model for age-group related subsamples. Our results give empirical support for the main transmission channels identified by the neoclassical framework – both at the aggregate level as well as for age-group specific estimates. Thereby, the impact of labor market signals is tested to be of greatest magnitude for workforce relevant age groups and especially young cohorts between the ages of??18 to??25 and??25 to??30. This latter result emphasizes the prominent role played by labor market conditions in determining internal migration rates of the working population in Germany.