GIS-modeling of the Range Shifts of the Sub-fossil and Extant European Pond Turtle ( Emys orbicularis ) in Eastern Europe in Holocene

摘要

The study of the dynamics of the European pond turtle’s Emys orbicularis range and distribution as an indicator of climate change in the past, present, and future is most relevant in connection with the protected status of this species in Europe. Based on our original finds, 25 archaeological sites yielding 1623 remains of 1504 individuals of subfossil pond turtles, current marginal distribution in Latvia, Ukraine, Russia, and literature data, we analyzed 437 records of Holocene turtles and 2847 current records of pond turtles. We identified areas that could serve as refugia for E. orbicularis, as a result of GIS modeling, while using 19 bioclimatic variables from the Worldclim and PaleoClim data bases. The data obtained confirm current hypotheses regarding the origin of more than 10 mtDNA lineages of E. orbicularis and the existence of multiple glacial refugia, and considerable Holocene home range dynamics.