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Verification of ECMWF System 4 for seasonal hydrological forecasting in a northern climate

机译:验证ECMWF系统4在北部气候下的季节性水文预报

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Hydropower production requires optimal dam and reservoir management to prevent flooding damage and avoid operation losses. In a northern climate, where spring freshet constitutes the main inflow volume, seasonal forecasts can help to establish a yearly strategy. Long-term hydrological forecasts often rely on past observations of streamflow or meteorological data. Another alternative is to use ensemble meteorological forecasts produced by climate models. In this paper, those produced by the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Forecast) System 4 are examined and bias is characterized. Bias correction, through the linear scaling method, improves the performance of the raw ensemble meteorological forecasts in terms of continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). Then, three seasonal ensemble hydrological forecasting systems are compared:?(1)?the climatology of simulated streamflow,?(2)?the ensemble hydrological forecasts based on climatology (ESP) and?(3)?the hydrological forecasts based on bias-corrected ensemble meteorological forecasts from System 4 (corr-DSP). Simulated streamflow computed using observed meteorological data is used as benchmark. Accounting for initial conditions is valuable even for long-term forecasts. ESP and corr-DSP both outperform the climatology of simulated streamflow for lead times from 1 to 5 months depending on the season and watershed. Integrating information about future meteorological conditions also improves monthly volume forecasts. For the 1-month lead time, a gain exists for almost all watersheds during winter, summer and fall. However, volume forecasts performance for spring varies from one watershed to another. For most of them, the performance is close to the performance of ESP. For longer lead times, the CRPS skill score is mostly in favour of ESP, even if for many watersheds, ESP and corr-DSP have comparable skill. Corr-DSP appears quite reliable but, in some cases, under-dispersion or bias is observed. A more complex bias-correction method should be further investigated to remedy this weakness and take more advantage of the ensemble forecasts produced by the climate model. Overall, in this study, bias-corrected ensemble meteorological forecasts appear to be an interesting source of information for hydrological forecasting for lead times up to 1 month. They could also complement ESP for longer lead times.
机译:水电生产需要最佳的大坝和水库管理,以防止洪水破坏和避免运营损失。在北部气候中,春季新鲜水是主要的流入量,季节预报可以帮助制定年度策略。长期的水文预报通常依赖于过去对水流或气象数据的观察。另一种替代方法是使用气候模型产生的整体气象预报。在本文中,对由ECMWF(欧洲中距离预测中心)系统4产生的数据进行了检查,并对偏差进行了表征。通过线性缩放方法进行的偏差校正可根据连续排名概率评分(CRPS)改善原始集合气象预报的性能。然后,比较了三个季节性集合水文预报系统:(1)模拟水流的气候学,(2)基于气候学的综合水文预报(ESP)和(3)基于偏差的水文预报。从系统4(corr-DSP)中更正了整体气象预报。使用观测到的气象数据计算出的模拟流量被用作基准。即使对于长期预测,初始条件的核算也很有价值。根据季节和分水岭的不同,ESP和corr-DSP的交付周期从1到5个月都超过了模拟流量的气候条件。整合有关未来气象条件的信息还可以改善月度天气预报。对于1个月的交货时间,冬季,夏季和秋季的几乎所有流域都存在收益。但是,春季的产量预测表现从一个流域到另一个流域有所不同。对于大多数产品而言,其性能已接近ESP的性能。对于较长的交货时间,即使在许多分水岭,ESP和corr-DSP的技能也相当,CRPS技能评分主要偏向于ESP。 Corr-DSP看起来非常可靠,但是在某些情况下,观察到色散不足或偏差。应该进一步研究更复杂的偏差校正方法,以弥补这一弱点,并更多地利用气候模型产生的整体预报。总体而言,在本研究中,偏差校正的集合气象预报似乎是水文预报(长达1个月)的有趣信息来源。他们还可以补充ESP,从而延长交货时间。

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