Prioritization of water management under climate change and urbanization using multi-criteria decision making methods

摘要

This paper quantifies the transformed effectiveness of alternatives forwatershed management caused by climate change and urbanization andprioritizes five options using multi-criteria decision making techniques. Theclimate change scenarios (A1B and A2) were obtained by using a statisticaldownscaling model (SDSM), and the urbanization scenario by surveying theexisting urban planning. The flow and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD)concentration duration curves were derived, and the numbers of days requiredto satisfy the environmental flow requirement and the target BODconcentration were counted using the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran(HSPF) model. In addition, five feasible alternatives were prioritized byusing multi-criteria decision making techniques, based on the drivingforce-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) framework and cost component.Finally, a sensitivity analysis approach for MCDM methods was conducted toreduce the uncertainty of weights. The result indicates that the mostsensitive decision criterion is cost, followed by criteria response, drivingforce, impact, state and pressure in that order. As it is certain that theimportance of cost component is over 0.127, construction of a smallwastewater treatment plant will be the most preferred alternative in thisapplication.