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Rainfall statistics changes in Sicily

机译:西西里岛的降雨统计变化

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Changes in rainfall characteristics are one of the most relevant signs ofcurrent climate alterations. Many studies have demonstrated an increase inrainfall intensity and a reduction of frequency in several areas of theworld, including Mediterranean areas. Rainfall characteristics may becrucial for vegetation patterns formation and evolution in Mediterraneanecosystems, with important implications, for example, in vegetation waterstress or coexistence and competition dynamics. At the same time,characteristics of extreme rainfall events are fundamental for theestimation of flood peaks and quantiles that can be used in manyhydrological applications, such as design of the most common hydraulicstructures, or planning and management of flood-prone areas.In the past, Sicily has been screened for several signals of possibleclimate change. Annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall data in the entireSicilian region have been analyzed, showing a global reduction of totalannual rainfall. Moreover, annual maximum rainfall series for differentdurations have been rarely analyzed in order to detect the presence oftrends. Results indicated that for short durations, historical seriesgenerally exhibit increasing trends, while for longer durations the trendsare mainly negative.Starting from these premises, the aim of this study is to investigate andquantify changes in rainfall statistics in Sicily, during the second half ofthe last century. Time series of about 60 stations over the region have beenprocessed and screened by using the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test.In particular, extreme events have been analyzed using annual maximumrainfall series at 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h duration, while daily rainfallproperties have been analyzed in terms of frequency and intensity, alsocharacterizing seasonal rainfall features. Results of extreme eventsanalysis confirmed an increasing trend for rainfall of short durations,especially for 1 h rainfall duration. Conversely, precipitation events of longdurations have exhibited a decreased trend. Increase in short-durationprecipitation has been observed especially in stations located along thecoastline; however, no clear and well-defined spatial pattern has beenoutlined by the results. Outcomes of analysis for daily rainfall propertieshave showed that heavy–torrential precipitation events tend to be more frequent atregional scale, while light rainfall events exhibited a negative trend atsome sites. Values of total annual precipitation events confirmed a significantnegative trend, mainly due to the reduction during the winter season.
机译:降雨特征的变化是当前气候变化最相关的标志之一。许多研究表明,包括地中海地区在内的世界上一些地区的降雨强度增加,频率降低。降雨特征可能对地中海生态系统中植被格局的形成和演化至关重要,例如对植被水分胁迫或共存和竞争动态具有重要意义。同时,极端降雨事件的特征对于估算洪水峰和分位数至关重要,洪水峰和分位数可用于许多水文学应用中,例如最常见的水工结构的设计或易发洪水地区的规划和管理。 <过去,对西西里岛进行过几种可能的气候变化信号的筛选。对整个西西里地区的年度,季节性和月度降雨数据进行了分析,表明全球总年降雨量减少。此外,为了检测趋势的存在,很少分析不同持续时间的年度最大降雨序列。结果表明,在短时期内,历史序列总体上呈上升趋势,而在较长时期内,趋势主要呈负趋势。 从这些前提出发,本研究的目的是调查和量化西西里岛降雨统计数据的变化。上世纪下半叶。已使用非参数Mann–Kendall检验处理和筛选了该地区大约60个站点的时间序列。 尤其是,使用年度最大降雨序列分别对1,3,6,12和24进行了分析。持续时间,同时根据频率和强度分析了每日降雨特性,也表征了季节性降雨特征。极端事件分析的结果证实了短时降雨的增加趋势,特别是短时降雨1小时。相反,长时间的降水事件却呈下降趋势。观察到短期降水增加,特别是在沿海岸线的站点;然而,结果并未勾勒出清晰明确的空间格局。对日常降雨特性的分析结果表明,在区域尺度上,大暴雨事件往往更为频繁,而在某些地点,轻降雨事件表现出负趋势。年度降水总量的值证实了一个显着的负趋势,这主要是由于冬季的减少。

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