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Technical note: Analysis of observation uncertainty for flood assimilation and forecasting

机译:技术说明:洪水同化和预报的观测不确定性分析

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The assimilation of satellite-based water level observations (WLOs) into 2D hydrodynamic models can keep flood forecasts on track or be used for reanalysis to obtain improved assessments of previous flood footprints. In either case, satellites provide spatially dense observation fields, but with spatially correlated errors. To date, assimilation methods in flood forecasting either incorrectly neglect the spatial correlation in the observation errors or, in the best of cases, deal with it by thinning methods. These thinning methods result in a sparse set of observations whose error correlations are assumed to be negligible. Here, with a case study, we show that the assimilation diagnostics that make use of statistical averages of observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis residuals are useful to estimate error correlations in WLOs. The estimated correlations do not behave as expected; however, analysis shows that the diagnostic can also be used to highlight anomalous observation datasets. Accurate estimates of the observation error statistics can be used to support quality control protocols and provide insight into which observations it is most beneficial to assimilate. Furthermore, the understanding gained in this paper will contribute towards the correct assimilation of denser datasets.
机译:将基于卫星的水位观测(WLO)同化为2D流体动力学模型可以使洪水预报保持跟踪或用于重新分析以获得对以前洪水足迹的改进评估。无论哪种情况,卫星都提供空间密集的观测场,但具有空间相关的误差。迄今为止,洪水预报中的同化方法要么错误地忽略了观测误差中的空间相关性,要么在最好的情况下,通过细化方法对其进行处理。这些稀疏方法导致观察值稀疏,其误差相关性可以忽略不计。在这里,通过一个案例研究,我们表明利用观察负背景和观察负分析残差的统计平均值进行的同化诊断对于估计WLO中的误差相关性很有用。估计的相关性不符合预期。但是,分析表明该诊断程序还可用于突出显示异常的观测数据集。观察误差统计信息的准确估计可用于支持质量控制协议,并提供对哪些观察最有利于同化的见解。此外,本文获得的理解将有助于更密集的数据集的正确同化。

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