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首页> 外文期刊>Hydrology and Earth System Sciences >Deriving global flood hazard maps of fluvial floods through a physical model cascade
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Deriving global flood hazard maps of fluvial floods through a physical model cascade

机译:通过物理模型级联得出河流洪水的全球洪水灾害图

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摘要

Global flood hazard maps can be used in the assessment of flood risk in anumber of different applications, including (re)insurance and large scaleflood preparedness. Such global hazard maps can be generated using largescale physically based models of rainfall-runoff and river routing, when usedin conjunction with a number of post-processing methods. In this study, theEuropean Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) land surface modelis coupled to ERA-Interim reanalysis meteorological forcing data, andresultant runoff is passed to a river routing algorithm which simulatesfloodplains and flood flow across the global land area. The global hazard mapis based on a 30 yr (1979–2010) simulation period. A Gumbel distribution isfitted to the annual maxima flows to derive a number of flood return periods.The return periods are calculated initially for a 25 × 25 km grid,which is then reprojected onto a 1 × 1 km grid to derive maps ofhigher resolution and estimate flooded fractional area for the individual 25× 25 km cells. Several global and regional maps of flood returnperiods ranging from 2 to 500 yr are presented. The results comparereasonably to a benchmark data set of global flood hazard. The developedmethodology can be applied to other datasets on a global or regional scale.
机译:全球洪水灾害图可用于评估许多不同应用中的洪水风险,包括(再保险)和大规模洪水准备。当与许多后处理方法结合使用时,可以使用大型的基于物理的降雨径流和河流路径模型来生成此类全球危害图。在这项研究中,将欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)地表模型与ERA-临时再分析气象强迫数据相结合,并将结果径流传递到模拟全球各地的洪泛区和洪水流的河道算法中。全球灾害图基于30年(1979-2010年)的模拟时期。将Gumbel分布拟合到年度最大流量,以得出多个洪水返还期。最初针对25×25 km的网格计算返还期,然后将其重新投影到1×1 km的网格上,以得出更高分辨率的地图并进行估算单个25×25 km单元的淹没分数区域。给出了2到500年的洪水泛滥期的一些全球和区域地图。结果与全球洪水灾害的基准数据集相比较。所开发的方法可以应用于全球或区域范围内的其他数据集。

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