Estimation of permafrost thawing rates in a sub-arctic catchment using recession flow analysis

摘要

Permafrost thawing is likely to change the flow pathways taken by water as itmoves through arctic and sub-arctic landscapes. The location and distributionof these pathways directly influence the carbon and other biogeochemicalcycling in northern latitude catchments. While permafrost thawing due toclimate change has been observed in the arctic and sub-arctic, directobservations of permafrost depth are difficult to perform at scales largerthan a local scale. Using recession flow analysis, it may be possible todetect and estimate the rate of permafrost thawing based on a long-termstreamflow record. We demonstrate the application of this approach to thesub-arctic Abiskojokken catchment in northern Sweden. Based on recession flowanalysis, we estimate that permafrost in this catchment may be thawing at anaverage rate of about 0.9 cm/yr during the past 90 years. This estimatedthawing rate is consistent with direct observations of permafrost thawingrates, ranging from 0.7 to 1.3 cm/yr over the past 30 years in the region.