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Comparison of Artificial Intelligence Techniques for river flow forecasting

机译:人工智能技术在河流流量预报中的比较

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摘要

The use of Artificial Intelligence methods is becoming increasingly commonin the modeling and forecasting of hydrological and water resourceprocesses. In this study, applicability of Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy InferenceSystem (ANFIS) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) methods, GeneralizedRegression Neural Networks (GRNN) and Feed Forward Neural Networks (FFNN),and Auto-Regressive (AR) models for forecasting of daily river flowis investigated and Seyhan River and Cine River was chosen as case studyarea. For the Seyhan River, the forecasting models are established usingcombinations of antecedent daily river flow records. On the other hand, forthe Cine River, daily river flow and rainfall records are used in inputlayer. For both stations, the data sets are divided into three subsets,training, testing and verification data set. The river flow forecastingmodels having various input structures are trained and tested to investigatethe applicability of ANFIS and ANN and AR methods. The results of all modelsfor both training and testing are evaluated and the best fit inputstructures and methods for both stations are determined according tocriteria of performance evaluation. Moreover the best fit forecasting modelsare also verified by verification set which was not used in training andtesting processes and compared according to criteria. The resultsdemonstrate that ANFIS model is superior to the GRNN and FFNN forecastingmodels, and ANFIS can be successfully applied and provide high accuracy andreliability for daily river flow forecasting.
机译:在水文和水资源过程的建模和预测中,人工智能方法的使用正变得越来越普遍。在这项研究中,自适应神经模糊推理系统(ANFIS)和人工神经网络(ANN)方法,广义回归神经网络(GRNN)和前馈神经网络(FFNN)和自回归(AR)模型在日常河流预报中的适用性调查了flow并选择了Seyhan河和Cine河作为案例研究区域。对于Seyhan河,使用以前的每日河流量记录的组合来建立预测模型。另一方面,对于Cine河,输入层使用每日河流量和降雨量记录。对于两个站点,数据集分为三个子集,即训练,测试和验证数据集。对具有各种输入结构的河流流量预报模型进行了训练和测试,以研究ANFIS和ANN和AR方法的适用性。评估所有模型的训练和测试结果,并根据绩效评估标准确定两个站点的最佳拟合输入结构和方法。此外,最佳拟合预测模型也由验证集进行验证,该验证集未在训练和测试过程中使用,并根据标准进行了比较。结果表明,ANFIS模型优于GRNN和FFNN预测模型,并且可以成功应用ANFIS并为日常河流流量预测提供高精度和可靠性。

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