There is growing concern in Europe about the possible rise in the severityand frequency of extreme drought events as a manifestation of climatechange. In order to plan suitable adaptation strategies it is important fordecision makers to know how drought conditions will develop at regionalscales. This paper therefore addresses the issue of future developments instreamflow drought characteristics across Europe. Through offline couplingof a hydrological model with an ensemble of bias-corrected climatesimulations (IPCC SRES A1B) and a water use scenario (Economy First), long-term (1961–2100) ensemble streamflow simulations are generated that accountfor changes in climate, and the uncertainty therein, and in waterconsumption. Using extreme value analysis we derive minimum flow and deficitindices and evaluate how the magnitude and severity of low-flow conditionsmay evolve throughout the 21st century. This analysis shows thatstreamflow droughts will become more severe and persistent in many parts ofEurope due to climate change, except for northern and northeastern parts ofEurope. In particular, southern regions will face strong reductions in lowflows. Future water use will aggravate the situation by 10–30% insouthern Europe, whereas in some sub-regions in western, central and easternEurope a climate-driven signal of reduced droughts may be reversed due tointensive water use. The multi-model ensemble projections of more frequentand severe streamflow droughts in the south and decreasing drought hazard inthe north are highly significant, while the projected changes are moredissonant in a transition zone in between.
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