Participatory scenario development for integrated assessment of nutrient flows in a Catalan river catchment

摘要

Rivers in developed regions are under significant stress due to nutrientenrichment generated mainly by human activities. Excess nitrogen andphosphorus emissions are the product of complex dynamic systems influencedby various factors such as demographic, socio-economic and technologicaldevelopment. Using a Catalan river catchment, La Tordera (North-East ofSpain), as a case study of an integrated and interdisciplinary environmentalassessment of nutrient flows, we present and discuss the development ofnarrative socio-economic scenarios through a participatory process for thesustainable management of the anthropogenic sources of nutrients, nitrogenand phosphorus. In this context, scenarios are an appropriate tool to assistnutrient emissions modelling, and to assess impacts, possible pathways forsocio-economic development and associated uncertainties. Evaluated againstthe 1993–2003 baseline period, scenarios target the 2030 horizon, i.e.through the implementation process of the Water Framework Directive(Directive 2000/60/EC). After a critical examination of the methodology usedin the participatory development of socio-economic scenarios, we presentfour possible futures (or perspectives) for the Catalan river catchmentconceived by stakeholders invited to a workshop. Keys to the success of sucha participatory process were trust, which enhanced openness, anddisagreements, which fostered the group's creativity for scenariodevelopment. The translation of narrative socio-economic scenarios intomeaningful nutrient emission scenarios is also discussed. By integratingfindings of natural sciences and socio-economic analysis, we aim to assistdecision makers and stakeholders in evaluating optimal management strategiesfor the anthropogenic sources of nitrogen and phosphorus.