Re-estimating UK Appraisal Values for Non-work Travel time Savings Using Random Coefficient Logit Model

摘要

The official appraisal values of travel time savings (VTTS) for non-work trips in UK were estimated by basic discrete choice model on stated choice data collected over 20 years ago. This choice model developed by Bates and Whalen (2001) was specified to address some long-standing issues in the field of VTTS valuation including the sign and size of VTTS while allowing continuous interactions between VTTS and journey covariates. With respect to the size issue, it was found that a “tapering” function, whereby time changes are increasingly discounted, could best explain the lower unit utility observed for small time savings (STS). While this set of non-work VTTS is still being used for transport appraisal in UK, the field of discrete choice modelling has evolved significantly brought by a leap of computing power and improved simulation techniques. Notably, advanced model such as mixed multinomial logit (MMNL) has been widely used to facilitate more realistic travel behavioural modelling by explaining random taste heterogeneity across respondents, which cannot be achieved in a deterministic manner. Also, techniques in specifying such model for VTTS valuation are well established by researchers nowadays. The key objective of this research was then to apply the MMNL model and re-estimate the current UK VTTS within a random coefficient logit framework. Alongside the theoretical discussions, this paper presents a synthesis of empirical evidence to support an updated appraisal value for non-work travel time savings in UK. Some key findings from this paper include a much higher mean value for the VTTS and the significantly reduced “perception effect” for the STS. In particular, this research found that MMNL model substantially reduces the “tapering” parameter of the discounting function for STS such that the “perception effect” of the VTTS becomes minimal. This finding suggests that travel benefits due to STS should be included for transport appraisal and it challenges some appraisal frameworks for countries like Germany where VTTS are discounted or even completely ignored for STS.