A Strategic Tour Generation Modeling within a Dynamic Land-Use and Transport Framework: A Case Study of Bogota, Colombia

摘要

The development of integrated techniques to evaluate long-term urban trends is a top priority in terms of creating a more sustainable society. In order to take a step forward from traditional peak-hour models, the purpose of this paper is to develop a travel demand (generation and attraction) strategic model of a typical day. The methodology integrates a commuting and non-commuting-related tour generation/attraction model and a Land-Use and Transport Interaction (LUTI) model to capture the feedback mechanisms that may affect tour generation in the long term. The travel demand model is developed from a cross-sectional household mobility survey carried out in Bogota in 2011. Multiple linear regression analysis is used to investigate and model the effect of income, household size and structure, car ownership, travel time and mixed land-use on the number of trips generated by a household on an average weekday. The trip attraction models are at best estimated using zonal data. The Bogota LUTI model that is adopted in this methodology has been benchmarked against other published models to compare its features and capabilities. The integration of the travel demand model and Bogota LUTI model will allow for a discussion on the suitability of the proposed modeling approach in order to test several scenarios with high motorization growth rates, and the possible advantages (or disadvantages) associated with them; thus, providing useful knowledge that will inspire future research on the evaluation of complex transportation policies in developing cities.