Inexact Two-Stage Stochastic Programming for Water Resources Allocation under Considering Demand Uncertainties and Response—A Case Study of Tianjin, China

摘要

In this paper, an inexact two-stage stochastic programming model was developed for supporting regional water resource allocation management under uncertainties. The proposed model is an integrated framework of interval parameter programming and two-stage stochastic programming, which can tackle uncertain parameters expressed as interval values with probability distribution information. The proposed model was successfully applied to a typical heavy industrial city suffering water shortage in the east of China, Tianjin. The uncertainties of future water demand were taken into account through generating a set of representative scenarios. The results indicated that different scenarios would affect the water distribution patterns, water shortages, total benefits and system cost. The results revealed that the transferred water from Luan River and Changjiang River would still be the main water resource for each water user. Besides, nearly all water demand in planning horizon would be guaranteed through the reasonable dispatch except under high demand level scenario, in which a small proportion of water requirement in agricultural, municipal and environmental sectors would not be satisfied. The developed method could be used by environmental managers to identify the optimal water supply plan from multiple sources to different end-user sectors under system uncertainties.