Impact of Demographic Growth on Seawater Intrusion: Case of the Tripoli Aquifer, Lebanon

摘要

Water resources in Mediterranean coastal aquifers are subject to overexploitation leading to an increase in seawater intrusion. Based on the United Nations Environment Program, “UNEP” 75% of people in the world will live in coastal cities by 2020. This is having a major impact on the salinization process. This paper deals with the impact of demographic evolution on seawater intrusion and considers the case of the lower Tripoli aquifer in Lebanon. A numerical model based on the sharp interface approach is implemented using “Freefem++” to access the seawater intrusion. The model is verified against an analytic and a numerical solution. It is calibrated and validated against hydraulic head observations (RMSD = 0.819 m). Then several scenarios of pumping are applied based on available demographic growth rates to quantify the impact on seawater intrusion. The projection scenarios show that if the current pumping rates are maintained while maintaining the demographic evolution, the pumping wells will be salinized within 2 decades in the highly populated areas.