Attribution of Runoff Change for the Xinshui River Catchment on the Loess Plateau of China in a Changing Environment

摘要

Stream flow plays a crucial role in the environment, society, and the economy, and identifying the causes of changes in runoff is important to understanding the impact of climate change and human activity. This study examines the variation trends in recorded runoff for the Xinshui River, a tributary of the Yellow River on the Loess Plateau, and uses hydrological simulations to investigate how climate change and human activity have contributed to those trends. Results show that the recorded runoff at the Daning station on the Xinshui River declined significantly from 1955–2008 with an abrupt change occurring in 1973. The Simplified Water Balance Model (SWBM) simulates monthly discharge well with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) coefficient of 78% and a relative error of volumetric fit (RE) of 0.32%. Runoff depth over the catchment in 1973–2008 fell by 25.5 mm relative to the previous period, with human activity and climate change contributing 60.6% and 39.4% of the total runoff reduction, respectively. However, the impacts induced by climate change and human activities are both tending to increase. Therefore, efforts to improve the ecology of the Loess Plateau should give sufficient attention to the impacts of climate change and human activity.