Accident Risk Assessment for Highly Reliable Aviation Systems in Emergency Situations

摘要

Safety of aircrafts exploitation is estimated by means of the using the results of the prognoses of the dangerous factors which could be take place during the flight in the off-design conditions. The risk - approach, based on the fuzzy sets methods, is discussed and find out the paths leading to the catastrophes of the different types of the vessels. The dangerous (Unsafeness, Hazard) is the discrete state with the factors which could be take place during the flight in the off-design conditions. It was suggested to find out the paths leading to the catastrophes under condition of the rare events with probabilities “almost zero”.