On the Use of Air Quality Monitoring Networks for the Evaluation of Nitrogen Oxide Emission Inventories

摘要

The usefulness of ground based air quality monitoring data for diagnostics of uncertainties in gridded emissioninventories is examined. A general probabilistic procedure for comparison of levels of uncertainties in different emissiondatasets is developed. It implies the evaluation of the agreement between modeling results obtained with these emissiondatasets and corresponding measurements. This procedure is applied to the evaluation of different datasets for Europeangridded nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions by using the AirBase monitoring data and the CHIMERE chemistry-transportmodel. Numerical experiments are performed for two different types of spatial distributions of emission uncertainties andfive different types of monitors. The results are also generalized for various levels of uncertainties in simulated and measureddata. It is found, in particular, that most informative, from the point of view of diagnostics of NOx emission uncertainties,are the measurements of NO2 at rural background sites and measurements of ozone at suburban sites situated inthe vicinity of intensive sources of emissions. A more precise conclusion regarding the relative accuracy of two emissiondatasets can be drawn with a larger number of monitors in a network and a higher accuracy of the model and measurements.For example, with a network of 50 rural background NO2 monitors, the probability of choosing the more certainemission data set is more than 90 percent, if differences in uncertainty of two sets are more than 50 percent. Practical recommendationsfor designing or evolving surface measurement networks, in light of the study results, are given.