Designing a resilient oil supply network with an intelligent solution algorithm

摘要

Energy crisis in recent decades has demonstrated strong interdependence between national security and energy security. We are also witness of sever conflicts in oil-rich zones such as Middle-East and West of Suez. This study is the first attempt to provide a flexible multi-objective mathematical model which not only mitigates catastrophic risks by filtering and taking plausible oil-supply disruption scenarios into account, but also reduces oil-supply disruption probability by considering and optimizing political, economic and financial dimensions of oil procurement. Mentioned model determines a resilient portfolio of oil suppliers under each scenario and decides which ports or pipelines must be prepared for receiving oil. Furthermore, the proposed model in the second phase enhances oil-availability in crisis time by storing strategic oil stocks in appropriate geographic points. Also regarding to complexity of the second phase model, a meta-heuristic algorithm has been provided to solve the mentioned model. Finally validity of proposed model is checked by solving it for Greece case problem; sensitivity analysis shows that provided model significantly mitigates catastrophic risks threating energy security by balancing political affairs and reinforcing infrastructural facilities with the least possible cost.