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Short-term wind power prediction based on extreme learning machine with error correction

机译:基于带误差校正的极限学习机的短期风电预测

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Introduction: Large-scale integration of wind generation brings great challenges to the secure operation of the power systems due to the intermittence nature of wind. The fluctuation of the wind generation has a great impact on the unit commitment. Thus accurate wind power forecasting plays a key role in dealing with the challenges of power system operation under uncertainties in an economical and technical way. Methods: In this paper, a combined approach based on Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) and an error correction model is proposed to predict wind power in the short-term time scale. Firstly an ELM is utilized to forecast the short-term wind power. Then the ultra-short-term wind power forecasting is acquired based on processing the short-term forecasting error by persistence method. Results: For short-term forecasting, the Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) doesn't perform well. The overall NRMSE (Normalized Root Mean Square Error) of forecasting results for 66 days is 21.09 %. For the ultra-short term forecasting after error correction, most of forecasting errors lie in the interval of [-10 MW, 10 MW]. The error distribution is concentrated and almost unbiased. The overall NRMSE is 5.76 %. Conclusion: The ultra-short-term wind power forecasting accuracy is further improved by using error correction in terms of normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE).
机译:简介:由于风力的间歇性,风力发电的大规模集成给电力系统的安全运行带来了巨大挑战。风力发电的波动对机组承诺有很大影响。因此,准确的风力发电预测以经济和技术方式在应对不确定性条件下的电力系统运行挑战中起着关键作用。方法:本文提出了一种基于极限学习机(ELM)和误差校正模型的组合方法来预测短期内的风电功率。首先,ELM用于预测短期风能。然后,通过持续性方法处理短期预报误差,获得了超短期风电预报。结果:对于短期预测,极限学习机(ELM)的效果不佳。 66天的总体NRMSE(标准化均方根误差)预测结果为21.09%。对于误差校正后的超短期预报,大多数预报误差在[-10 MW,10 MW]区间内。误差分布集中并且几乎没有偏差。总体NRMSE为5.76%。结论:通过使用归一化均方根误差(NRMSE)进行误差校正,进一步提高了超短期风电的预测精度。

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