Credibility and reputation: an application of the 'external circumstances' model for the Real Plan

摘要

This paper analyzes credibility and reputation aspects of the Brazilian economic policy between August 1994 and December 1998. It uses an ''external circumstances'' model, which can be applied to countries with fixed or crawling-peg exchange rate policies. The model assumes that no government can conduct its economic policy with the single objective of inflation control, thoroughly ignoring the unemployment and growth paths. Therefore, in the presence of ''external circumstances'' (unexpected exogenous shocks) even a strong anti-inflationary government can be forced to devalue its exchange rate. The results here show that the government followed a consistent policy with inflation control while allowing for a gradual recovery of the competitiveness level.