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Inferring Epidemic Contact Structure from Phylogenetic Trees

机译:从系统发生树推断流行性接触结构

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Contact structure is believed to have a large impact on epidemic spreading and consequently using networks to model such contact structure continues to gain interest in epidemiology. However, detailed knowledge of the exact contact structure underlying real epidemics is limited. Here we address the question whether the structure of the contact network leaves a detectable genetic fingerprint in the pathogen population. To this end we compare phylogenies generated by disease outbreaks in simulated populations with different types of contact networks. We find that the shape of these phylogenies strongly depends on contact structure. In particular, measures of tree imbalance allow us to quantify to what extent the contact structure underlying an epidemic deviates from a null model contact network and illustrate this in the case of random mixing. Using a phylogeny from the Swiss HIV epidemic, we show that this epidemic has a significantly more unbalanced tree than would be expected from random mixing.
机译:人们认为接触结构对流行病的传播有很大影响,因此使用网络对这种接触结构进行建模一直引起流行病学的兴趣。但是,有关真正流行病的确切接触结构的详细知识是有限的。在这里,我们解决了接触网络的结构是否在病原体种群中留下可检测的遗传指纹的问题。为此,我们比较了由具有不同类型接触网络的模拟人群中疾病暴发产生的系统发育。我们发现这些系统发育的形状很大程度上取决于接触结构。特别是,树木不平衡的度量使我们能够量化流行病潜在的接触结构偏离零模型接触网络的程度,并在随机混合的情况下对此进行说明。使用来自瑞士HIV流行病的系统发育史,我们表明,这种流行病比不经随机混合所期望的具有明显更多的不平衡树。

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