Projections of climate-induced future range shifts among fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) species in Uganda

摘要

The potential impact of future climate change on fruit fly species distribution was assessed in Uganda using two general circulation models (HADCM and CCCMA) and two future predicted CO2 emission scenarios (A2 and B2), under both full and no species dispersal modes. Future ranges were overall projected to decline by 25.4% by year 2050. Under full-dispersal, D. ciliatus C. cosyra B. invadens ranges were predicted to increase, while the rest are likely to decrease. In the no-dispersal scenario, a significant average decrease in size of niches is predicted. Range losses are predicted higher under B2 than A2. Future niches will likely shift to northern Uganda. The results should assist in the development of climate change adaptive pest management strategies.Keywords:climate change; dispersal; Bacrocera; nicheReferences:Bagavathiannan Muthukumar V., Norsworthy Jason K. (2012): Late-Season Seed Production in Arable Weed Communities: Management Implications. Weed Science, 60, 325-334 doi:10.1614/WS-D-11-00222.1 Baraibar Bàrbara, Westerman Paula R., Carrión Eva, Recasens Jordi (2009): Effects of tillage and irrigation in cereal fields on weed seed removal by seed predators. Journal of Applied Ecology, 46, 380-387 doi:10.1111/j.1365-2664.2009.01614.x Batlla Diego, Benech-Arnold Roberto Luis (2014): Weed seed germination and the light environment: Implications for weed management. Weed Biology and Management, 14, 77-87 doi:10.1111/wbm.12039 BENVENUTI , MACCHIA (1998): Phytochrome-mediated germination control of Datura stramonium L. seeds after seed burial. Weed Research, 38, 199-205 doi:10.1046/j.1365-3180.1998.00086.x Benvenuti Stefano, Macchia Mario, Miele Sergio (2001): Quantitative analysis of emergence of seedlings from buried weed seeds with increasing soil depth. Weed Science, 49, 528-535 doi:10.1614/0043-1745(2001)049[0528:QAOEOS]2.0.CO;2 John Bullied W., Van Acker Rene C., Bullock Paul R. (2012): Review: Microsite characteristics influencing weed seedling recruitment and implications for recruitment modeling. Canadian Journal of Plant Science, 92, 627-650 doi:10.4141/cjps2011-281 Chauhan Bhagirath S., Gill Gurjeet, Preston Christopher (2006): Seedling recruitment pattern and depth of recruitment of 10 weed species in minimum tillage and no-till seeding systems. Weed Science, 54, 658-668 doi:10.1614/WS-05-135R.1 Chauhan Bhagirath Singh, Singh Ravi Gopal, Mahajan Gulshan (2012): Ecology and management of weeds under conservation agriculture: A review. Crop Protection, 38, 57-65 doi:10.1016/j.cropro.2012.03.010  FAO (2006): World Reference Base for Soil Resources 2006. A Framework for International Classification, Correlation and Communication. FAO World Soil Resources Reports 103. Rome, Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations.  FAO (2012): Available at http://www.fao.org/ag/ca/doc/FLYER_Conservation_Agriculture.pdf (accessed July 28, 2015). GARDARIN A, DüRR C, COLBACH N (2010): Effects of seed depth and soil aggregates on the emergence of weeds with contrasting seed traits. Weed Research, 50, 91-101 doi:10.1111/j.1365-3180.2009.00757.x Hobbs P. R, Sayre K., Gupta R. (2008): The role of conservation agriculture in sustainable agriculture. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 363, 543-555 doi:10.1098/rstb.2007.2169 Holland J.M. (2004): The environmental consequences of adopting conservation tillage in Europe: reviewing the evidence. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 103, 1-25 doi:10.1016/j.agee.2003.12.018  Loddo D., Masin R., Gasparini V., Meggio F., Pitacco A., Zanin G. (2015): Assessing microclimate conditions of surface soil layers to improve weed emergence modelling. Italian Journal of Agrometeorology, 20 (Issue 2): 19–26.  Martinková Z., Hon?k A. (2013): Fatal Germination in Barnyardgrass (Echinochloa crus-galli). Plant Protection Science, 49: 193–197. MASIN R, ZUIN MC, OTTO S, ZANIN G (2006): Seed longevity and dormancy of four summer annual grass weeds in turf. Weed Research, 46, 362-370 doi:10.1111/j.1365-3180.2006.00520.x Page Eric R., Cerrudo Diego, Westra Philip, Loux Mark, Smith Kenneth, Foresman Chuck, Wright Harold, Swanton Clarence J. (2012): Why Early Season Weed Control Is Important in Maize. Weed Science, 60, 423-430 doi:10.1614/WS-D-11-00183.1 Refsell D. E., Hartzler R. G. (2009): Effect of Tillage on Common Waterhemp (Amaranthus Rudis) Emergence and Vertical Distribution of Seed in The Soil. Weed Technology, 23, 129-133 doi:10.1614/WT-08-045.1 Scarabel L., Panozzo S., Savoia W., Sattin M. (2014): Target-Site ACCase-Resistant Johnsongrass ( Sorghum halepense ) Selected in Summer Dicot Crops. Weed Technology, 28, 307-315 doi:10.1614/WT-D-13-00137.1  Simi? M., Dolijanovi? ?., Maleti? R., Stefanovi? L., Filipovi? M. (2012): Weed suppression and crop productivity by different arrangement patterns of maize. Plant, Soil and Environmen