首页> 外文期刊>Plant Protection Science >Preparing for changes in plant disease due to climate change
【24h】

Preparing for changes in plant disease due to climate change

机译:为气候变化导致的植物病害变化做好准备

获取原文
       

摘要

Climate change will change patterns of disease through changes in host distribution and phenology, changes in plant-associated microflora and direct biological effects on rapidly evolving pathogens. Short-term forecast models coupled with weather generated from climate simulations may be a basis for projection; however, they will often fail to capture long-term trends effectively. Verification of predictions is a major difficulty; the most convincing method would be to “back-forecast” observed historical changes. Unfortunately, we lack of empirical data over long time-spans; most of what is known concerns invasions, in which climate is not the main driving factor. In one case where long-term prevalence can be deduced, climate had little to do with change. Resilience to surprises should be the most important policy aim.
机译:气候变化将通过宿主分布和物候变化,植物相关微生物区系变化以及对迅速发展的病原体的直接生物学影响而改变疾病的模式。短期预报模型以及气候模拟产生的天气可能是进行预测的基础;但是,他们往往无法有效地把握长期趋势。验证预测是一个主要困难;最有说服力的方法是“反向预测”观察到的历史变化。不幸的是,我们缺乏长期的经验数据。大多数已知的问题都与入侵有关,在入侵中气候不是主要的驱动因素。在可以推断出长期流行率的一种情况下,气候与变化无关。应对突发事件的应变能力应该是最重要的政策目标。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱:kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备:11010802029741号 ICP备案号:京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有
  • 客服微信

  • 服务号