Geospatial Auto-correlation Statistical Analysis to Evaluate the Seismic Magnitudes and Its Implications on the Mediterranean Coastal Zone of Egypt

摘要

The northern coastal zone of Egypt (Mediterranean) is under the force of tension shear zones of African and European plates that generate earthquakes with variable magnitudes. We try to find a spatial relation between the collected seismic points and to evaluate how much these points affect and accelerate the frequencies of the high magnitudes’ earthquakes events. Geospatial and statistical analyses (e.g. ArcGIS tools) have used to analyze nearly 3083 earthquake records in the last 65 years in the Mediterranean basin in relation to the geo-tectonic shear zones. Nearly 85% of these earthquakes were in the marine. Aegean and Anatolia shear zones are the highest contributors of the earthquakes with nearly 43% and 42% respectively. Three results of the dominant geotectonic hazards were obtained. The first is that the majority of the hot spotted earthquakes are located at the Aegean Sea which enforcing the frequency and severity of earthquakes and tsunamis than that of Anatolia plate. The northward movement rate towards the African-Aegean plate is a bit lower due to the existing of the Mediterranean ridge and Strabo and Pliny trenches which resisting the African plate northward subduction. The second is that the subsidence rates and directions at the coastal Nile delta region is aligned to the rates and directions of the tectonic plates’ movements and the compaction rates of the deltaic sediments. The third is that the depths of the majority earthquakes epicenters (85%) were down to 40 km from the sea floor, one third of them were within the shallower 10 km depth. These results approve the frequencies of the severe earthquakes are potential based on the spatial statistical analysis. Therefore, the Egyptian coastal zone is vulnerability-marked where a lot of developmental activities were located.