Environmental suitability for Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus and the spatial distribution of major arboviral infections in Mexico

摘要

BackgroundThis paper discusses a comparative geographic distribution ofAedes aegyptiandAedes albopictusmosquitoes in Mexico, using environmental suitability modeling and reported cases of arboviral infections.MethodsUsing presence-only records, we modeled mosquito niches to show how much they influenced the distribution ofAe. aegyptiandAe. albopictusbased on mosquito records collected at the municipality level. Mosquito surveillance data were used to create models regarding the predicted suitability ofAe. albopictusandAe. aegyptimosquitos in Mexico.ResultsAe. albopictushad relatively a better predictive performance (area under the curve, AUC?=?0.87) to selected bioclimatic variables compared toAe. aegypti(AUC?=?0.81).Ae. aegyptiwere more suitable for areas with minimum temperature of coldest month (Bio6, permutation importance 28.7%) ?6?°C to 21.5?°C, cumulative winter growing degree days (GDD) between 40 and 500, and precipitation of wettest month (Bio13) >8.4?mm. Minimum temperature range of the coldest month (Bio6) was ?6.6?°C to 20.5?°C, and average precipitation of the wettest month (Bio13) 8.9?mm?~?600?mm were more suitable for the existence ofAe. albopictus.However, arboviral infections maps prepared from the 2012–2016 surveillance data showed cases were reported far beyond predicted municipalities.ConclusionsThis study identified the urgent necessity to start surveillance in 925 additional municipalities that reported arbovirus infections but did not reportAedesmosquito.