首页> 外文期刊>Sustainability >Short-Term Wind Electric Power Forecasting Using a Novel Multi-Stage Intelligent Algorithm
【24h】

Short-Term Wind Electric Power Forecasting Using a Novel Multi-Stage Intelligent Algorithm

机译:基于新型多阶段智能算法的风电短期预测

获取原文
           

摘要

As the most efficient renewable energy source for generating electricity in a modern electricity network, wind power has the potential to realize sustainable energy supply. However, owing to its random and intermittent instincts, a high permeability of wind power into a power network demands accurate and effective wind energy prediction models. This study proposes a multi-stage intelligent algorithm for wind electric power prediction, which combines the Beveridge–Nelson (B-N) decomposition approach, the Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM), and a newly proposed intelligent optimization approach called the Grasshopper Optimization Algorithm (GOA). For data preprocessing, the B-N decomposition approach was employed to disintegrate the hourly wind electric power data into a deterministic trend, a cyclic term, and a random component. Then, the LSSVM optimized by the GOA (denoted GOA-LSSVM) was applied to forecast the future 168 h of the deterministic trend, the cyclic term, and the stochastic component, respectively. Finally, the future hourly wind electric power values can be obtained by multiplying the forecasted values of these three trends. Through comparing the forecasting performance of this proposed method with the LSSVM, the LSSVM optimized by the Fruit-fly Optimization Algorithm (FOA-LSSVM), and the LSSVM optimized by Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO-LSSVM), it is verified that the established multi-stage approach is superior to other models and can increase the precision of wind electric power prediction effectively.
机译:作为现代电网中最高效的可再生能源,风能具有实现可持续能源供应的潜力。然而,由于其随机性和间歇性的本能,风电在电网中的高渗透性要求准确而有效的风能预测模型。这项研究提出了一种多阶段的风电功率预测智能算法,该算法结合了Beveridge-Nelson(BN)分解方法,最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM)和一种新提出的智能优化方法,称为Grasshopper优化算法( GOA)。对于数据预处理,采用B-N分解方法将每小时风电数据分解为确定性趋势,循环项和随机分量。然后,将由GOA优化的LSSVM(表示为GOA-LSSVM)分别用于预测确定性趋势,循环项和随机分量的未来168小时。最后,通过将这三个趋势的预测值相乘,可以获得未来的每小时风电功率值。通过将该方法与LSSVM,通过果蝇优化算法(FOA-LSSVM)优化的LSSVM和通过粒子群优化(PSO-LSSVM)优化的LSSVM的预测性能进行比较,验证了所提方法的预测性能。阶段法优于其他模型,可以有效提高风电功率预测的精度。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱:kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备:11010802029741号 ICP备案号:京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有
  • 客服微信

  • 服务号