Predicting Macroeconomic Indicators in the Czech Republic Using Econometric Models and Exponential Smoothing Techniques

摘要

Econometric modeling and exponential smoothing techniques are two quantitative forecasting methods with good results in practice, but the objective of the research was to find out which of the two techniques are better for short run predictions. Therefore, for inflation, unemployment and interest rate in the Czech Republic various accuracy indicators were calculated for the predictions based on these methods. Short run forecasts on a horizon of 3 months were made for December 2011-February 2012, the econometric models being updated. For the Czech Republic, the exponential smoothing techniques provided more accurate forecasts than the econometric models (VAR(2) models, ARMA procedure and models with lagged variables). One explication for the better performance of smoothing techniques would be that in the chosen countries the short run predictions were more influenced by the recent evolution of the indicators.