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Short Term Electric Load Prediction by Incorporation of Kernel into Features Extraction Regression Technique

机译:结合特征提取回归技术的核电短期负荷预测

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Accurate load prediction plays an important role in smart power management system, either for planning, facing the increasing of load demand, maintenance issues, or power distribution system. In order to achieve a reasonable prediction, authors have applied and compared two features extraction technique presented by kernel partial least square regression and kernel principal component regression, and both of them are carried out by polynomial and Gaussian kernels to map the original features’ to high dimension features’ space, and then draw new predictor variables known as scores and loadings, while kernel principal component regression draws the predictor features to construct new predictor variables without any consideration to response vector. In contrast, kernel partial least square regression does take the response vector into consideration. Models are simulated by three different cities’ electric load data, which used historical load data in addition to weekends and holidays as common predictor features for all models. On the other hand temperature has been used for only one data as a comparative study to measure its effect. Models’ results evaluated by three statistic measurements, show that Gaussian Kernel Partial Least Square Regression offers the more powerful features and significantly can improve the load prediction performance than other presented models.
机译:准确的负载预测在智能电源管理系统中起着重要作用,无论是进行规划,还是要面对不断增长的负载需求,维护问题或配电系统。为了获得合理的预测,作者已经应用并比较了核偏最小二乘回归和核主成分回归提出的两种特征提取技术,并且两者均由多项式和高斯核执行,以将原始特征映射到高维特征空间,然后绘制新的预测变量(称为得分和负荷),而内核主成分回归绘制预测因子特征以构造新的预测变量,而无需考虑响应向量。相反,核偏最小二乘回归确实考虑了响应向量。模型是由三个不同城市的电力负荷数据模拟的,除了周末和节假日,这些数据还使用历史负荷数据作为所有模型的通用预测特征。另一方面,温度仅用于一个数据,作为比较研究来衡量其影响。通过三个统计量度评估的模型结果显示,与其他模型相比,高斯核偏最小二乘回归提供了更强大的功能,并且可以显着提高负荷预测性能。

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