WHERE ARE WE GOING? THE EVOLUTION OF KEY INDICATORS IN ROMANIA

摘要

Any economy goes through a cyclical evolution, the analysis of which makes the object of study of many specialists in the field, be they part of the macroeconomic decision organisms or simple researchers. Given both the existence of atypical economic cyclicities and the difficulties in correctly forecasting the impact force or even the influence direction, at macroeconomic level, of some key internal and external factors, the questions related to the expected evolution, from a macroeconomic perspective, are a continuous source of thorough analysis. The trend of the gross domestic product, the identification of the main elements determining such pattern, the trade balance, the budgetary deficit or the public debt are just some of the most important topics of research approached in order to anticipate the way an economy might evolve in the near or far future. This is also the intention of the authors of the current paper, who, based on the well-grounded pieces of information provided by the National Bank of Romania, via its financial stability reports, observed in the last five years, undertake to reveal the evolution registered in Romania during this period, as well as to forecast the direction in which the target country is going.