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Time and Space Structure of Interannual Variations in Summer Rainfall over China

机译:中国夏季降水年际变化的时空结构

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The time and space structure of interannual fluctuations of summer rainfall (May to September) for the period from 1951 to 1990 over China is described. First, a harmonic analysis is applied to the summer rainfall series. The variation with periods of two to four years (hereafter, refered to 2-4 year component) accounts for more than 40 percent of the total variance for all stations, and more than 70 percent of the total variance for 61 percent of stations. The three-year period seems most prevailent among this period band.An EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function) technique is applied to the 2-4 year period series. The first two EOF modes account for 12.8 and 10.7 percent of the total variance, respectively. EOF mode 1 reveals the seesaw between the Yangtze River valley and the Northern part of China. The spatial pattern of EOF mode 2 is more complicated, but it may be characterized by the oscillation between the Mei-yu region including the Yangtze River valley, and the rest of the country. Although the contribution proportion of the two principle modes is not high, composite maps show that they present the situations (before applying the EOF analysis) well. These two EOF modes exhibit large amplitude modulations. The amplitudes or the squares of the time coefficients tend to become large or small alternatively.Correlation and composite analyses show that EOF mode 1 correlates with the Indian summer monsoon and the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index). This result agrees with that of preceding studies and suggests that the summer rainfall over China is associated with the ENSO (El Nino and Southern Oscillation) events on the time-scale of two to four years. EOF mode 1 seems to precede the anomaly of the SOI. This result supports the previous proposals that the ENSO signals in the eastern equatorial Pacific may originate in the central Asia or the Indian Ocean region. EOF mode 2 seems not to be related to the Indian monsoon and the ENSO.
机译:描述了中国1951年至1990年夏季降水(5月至9月)年际波动的时空结构。首先,将谐波分析应用于夏季降雨序列。两到四年的周期变化(以下称为2-4年部分)占所有站点总变化的40%以上,占61%站点总变化的70%以上。三年周期似乎是该周期范围内最普遍的方法。将EOF(经验正交函数)技术应用于2-4年周期序列。前两种EOF模式分别占总方差的12.8%和10.7%。 EOF模式1揭示了长江流域和中国北部之间的跷跷板。 EOF模式2的空间格局较为复杂,但其特征可能在于包括长江流域在内的梅雨地区与全国其他地区之间的振荡。尽管这两种主要模式的贡献比例不高,但是组合图显示它们很好地呈现了这种情况(在应用EOF分析之前)。这两种EOF模式表现出较大的幅度调制。相关系数和综合分析表明,EOF模式1与印度夏季风和SOI(南方涛动指数)相关。这一结果与先前的研究结果相吻合,并表明中国的夏季降雨与ENSO(厄尔尼诺和南方涛动)事件的时间范围为2至4年。 EOF模式1似乎先于SOI异常。这一结果支持了先前的建议,即赤道东太平洋的ENSO信号可能起源于中亚或印度洋地区。 EOF模式2似乎与印度季风和ENSO无关。

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