Effects of climatic and social factors on dengue incidence in Mexican municipalities in the state of Veracruz

摘要

Objective. To assess links between the social variables and?longer-term El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related?weather conditions as they relate to the week-to-week?changes in dengue incidence at a regional level. Materials?and methods . We collected data from 10 municipalities of?the Olmeca region in México, over a 10 year period (January?1995 to December 2005). Negative binomial models with?distributed lags were adjusted to look for associations between?changes in the weekly incidence rate of dengue fever?and climate variability. Results . Our results show that it?takes approximately six weeks for sea surface temperatures?(SST -34) to affect dengue incidence adjusted by weather and?social variables. Conclusion . Such models could be used?as early as two months in advance to provide information to?decision makers about potential epidemics. Elucidating the?effect of climatic variability and social variables, could assist?in the development of accurate early warning systems for?epidemics like dengue, Chikungunya and Zika. ? ?