Estimation of Basic Reproduction Number of Enterovirus 71, Coxsackievirus A6 and A16 in Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Outbreaks in Singapore

摘要

The major enteroviruses causing nationwide epidemics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Singapore were enterovirus 71 (EV71), coxsackievirus A6 (CA6) and A16 (CA16). A mathematical model was used to estimate the basic reproduction number (R&sub&0&/sub&) of these enteroviruses based on the cumulative number of reported cases in the initial growth phase of each HFMD outbreak. The median R&sub&0&/sub& was estimated to be 3.50 for EV71, 2.42 for CA16, and 5.04 for CA6. The enterovirus-specific R&sub&0&/sub& estimates would be helpful in providing insights into the potential growth of future HFMD epidemics for timely implementation of disease control measures.