Methodology and Equations of Mineral Production Forecast—Part I. Crude Oil in the UK and Gold in Nevada, USA. Prediction of Late Stages of Production

摘要

The equations of mineral production forecast link the change in time of mineral reserves with the production and the ratio of reserves to production. These equations allow us to model the development of the mineral resources evaluated at any scale. Probabilistic bidimensional charts made from montecarlo simulations provide intervals of confidence for the forecasts. The set of equations is devised and presented for a variety of applications to the oil and gas industry, as well to the production of any other mineral resource, either metals or non metals, whose ore deposit volumes and production might be quantified. The cases studied in the UK and USA are at late stages of production, periods for what the equations are most suitable to be applied without further adjustments. Experimental design allows the diagnosis of the likely values of the variables pertaining to the equations, in order to achieve the results provided by conventional production forecasts or to explore other scenarios of investigation. The method can be practical to evaluate commitments of production of mineral resources with time, to support strategic plans for companies, corporations, countries or regions based on those evaluations, for the screening and ranking of mineral assets based on their production potential and many other tasks where the prediction of future volumes of mineral production is required.