Jet streams anomalies as possible short-term precursors of earthquakes with M>6.0

摘要

Satellite data of thermal images revealed the existence of thermal fields, connected with big linear structures and systems of crust faults. The measuring height of outgoing longwave radiation is located to the range of jet stream. This work describes a possible link between strong earthquakes and jet streams in two regions. The front or tail ends of jet groups maintain their position for 6 or more hours in the vicinity of epicenters of strong ( M >6.0) earthquakes in 2006-2010. The probability of observing a stationary jet stream behavior is estimated in 93.6% of the cases on one sixhour map and in 26.7% of cases - on two adjacent maps. The median of distribution of distances between epicenters and the relevant positions of jet stream corresponds to 36.5 km. Estimates of cumulative probability of realization of prediction were 24.2% for 10 days, 48.4% for 20 days, 66.1% for 30 days, 87.1% for 40 days, 93.5% for 50 days and 100% during 70 days. The observed precursory effects are of considerable interest for possible use for real short-term prediction of earthquakes.