Estimativa dos recursos eólicos no litoral cearense usando a teoria da regress?o linear

摘要

The current study deals with the estimation of wind resources in the coast of Ceará using the linear regression theory. Its main objective is to estimate average wind speed values at different altitudes from observed data at surface. Two areas located in the State of Ceará are investigated: Paracuru and Camocim. For each region the same procedure will be adopted. Initially the region is characterized by the daily and monthly mean wind speed profile obtained from the local Platform for Data Collection (PCD) and anemometric tower (TA) raw data. The prevailing wind direction data are also used. The logarithmic wind profile equation is used to estimate the values of average wind speed at altitudes of 20, 40 and 60 meters from the observed data at 10m surface, then calculating the correlation coefficients between the estimated altitude data and the observed TA data in the region. Then, the linear regression model is used to estimate new values in altitude. Initially this procedure is done for a period of model calibration and then for a period of validation. In both periods the linear regression model showed a good performance either by the high correlation coefficient values between the estimated and observed data series, or the low values of the errors between the series.