Suscetibilidade do ambiente a ocorrências de queimadas sob condi??es climáticas atuais e de futuro aquecimento global

摘要

Vegetation burning is the second source of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. An important step to reduce the climate impact of these emissions is to investigate the atmospheric susceptibility of a region for fire development (fire risk). This study aims to investigate the environmental susceptibility to fire development, based on the burning risk index: the Haines Index (HI). The study is carried out with data from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate model and the NCEP reanalysis data, to calculate the HI during two periods: present day (1980-2000) and climate projections for the end of the 21st century (2080-2100). Based upon the results, we concluded that the Haines index could reproduce properly the areas with the highest fire incidence under present conditions. Moreover, it has been found an enlargement in the fire risk area under global warming conditions, in particular for the Amazon region.